As an international business attorney, I’ve got to stay on top of global markets to provide my clients with the best possible service. But with things moving so fast these days, it can be hard to keep up.
Thanks to a highly insightful presentation authored by Byron Wien, Senior Managing Director at The Blackstone Group, staying on top of things just got a little easier. The presentation centers on Wein’s Top 10 Global Economic Surprises for 2010.
Wein’s predictions are summarized below (courtesy of Marketfolly):
- The US economy grows at a 5% real rate and unemployment drops below 9%.
- The Federal Reserve hikes the fed funds rate to 2% by year-end.
- Ten year treasury yields rise above 5.5%.
- The US dollar rallies against the yen and the euro.
- The S&P rallies to 1300 in the first half of the year, declines to 1000, then settles around 1115.
- Japan becomes the best performing market.
- President Obama endorses nuclear power development.
- The Obama administration becomes energized via US economic improvement.
- Financial service legislation will be passed (but in a softer form than originally feared).
- Civil unrest in Iran peaks.
While some of the predictions are already playing out like he predicted (the S&P marches higher and treasury yields picking up), I’m thrilled to see Japan pegged as the word’s best performing market. Coincidentally (presciently?), Japan was the focus of my recent post, How to Set Up a Business in Japan (And Other Business Wisdom).
Wein’s presentation is embedded in its entirety below: